PMI Risk Index: 80% Chance of Rising Prices in Next Two Years

PMI Mortgage Insurance Co released its latest U.S. Market Risk Index, which ranks likelihood of declining prices for the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). PMI Mortgage Insurance Co is one of the largest providers of PMI in the US, so you better believe they spend a good chunk of time studying the market, prices, and defaults.
The bad news is that the decline in national prices accelerated in the first quarter of 2008. The more interesting news for our area is that the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria MSA had a risk rank of just 3 (of 5) and risk index score of 21.4, down from 29.1 last year.

This risk index reflects the probability that prices will be lower in two years. So if you’re planning on waiting to buy because you think prices will drop, this report is estimating that there is a 1 in 5 chance that you will make out better if you wait two years; said another way, there is a 4 in 5 chance that prices will go up. This is no doubt tied to our area’s continuing low unemployment rate of 3.6%, the lowest of all 50 MSAs.

Buyers: 80% chance prices will go up…you might want to start your search soon.

Sellers: Hold on a little longer…your odds are improving.


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