Thoughts on the Washington, DC, and Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

Is the First Time Home Buyer Credit Coming Back?

Katie Wethman — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 13:12:23 +0000

With the precipitous 27% drop in July housing sales, the first time home buyer credit is getting renewed interest from some heavy hitters in Washington, including Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan, according to The Hill. Though admitting that just one month of numbers was too little data to say whether the credit will be revived…

“In an interview on CNN, Donovan said the administration is “concerned” about the path of the industry. He defended the Obama administration’s record on supporting the housing market, amid new signs that the market is struggling alongside the broader economy.
Donovan did not rule out a further homebuyer tax credit to support the market.”

While plenty of blogs out there are again predicting real estate Armageddon, personally, I don’t think that the huge drop in July sales really should have been ‘unexpected’ at all. But no one wants to read a meh headline like “Home sales drop as expected in July as would be normal following any artificial force on a market.” (OK, I’m sure editors would shorten that headline, should it ever exist.)

Think about all the second half 2010 first time home buyers who pulled forward so that they could close before June 30 to get their extra $8000. We essentially ‘used up’ the first time buyer segment for at least a few months, and probably the remainder of 2010. By the Spring 2011 market there will be a new crop of buyers. Unless Congress intervenes first, that is.

Note to Congress: Spring is NOT the time to have a first time buyer credit expire. It was a double whammy…end of the usual Spring market–giving a credit to buyers who were going to purchase those homes anyway–PLUS the expiration of the credit. Next time, make the credit active in the late Fall and through February so that buyers are buying up the old inventory and foreclosures that otherwise would be sitting.)

And here’s another tip…if you want to jumpstart home sales with a buyer credit, don’t start hinting around about it to the press…Secretary Donovan essentially just wiped out what few first time home buyers there currently are, who are now all going to wait to see if there’s another credit.

Stay tuned.

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Free First Time Home Buyer Seminar in Arlington

Katie Wethman — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 02:01:23 +0000

Monday, September 20, 2010 from 7:00 – 8:15
Arlington Central Library
1015 N Quincy St 2nd floor meeting room
Ballston (Orange Line)

Though there is no cost to attend, you must contact us to register for the First Time Buyer Class since seating is limited and so that materials are available.

Educating Home Buyers to Enable Better Decisions

Our first time home buyer classes are educational sessions designed to give an overview of current market conditions and the home buying process. We cover a recap of the market, current trends and market stats including days on market, average sales prices, and inventory levels. We’ll also discuss the impact of the banking system collapse and bailout, the home purchase process and common pitfalls, financing basics and a how to get started checklist.

Specific topics covered:
- Northern Virginia, DC, and Montgomery County market analysis
- Mortgage basics: rates, points, fees
- Financing basics: FHA, Conventional, Conforming, and “Jumbo” loans
- Calculating the tax benefits of homeownership
- Short Sale, Foreclosure/REO/Bank Owned basics
- Search tips
- Fees and closing costs
- Buyer agency and choosing an agent

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North Arlington (Orange Line) Condo Update: August 2010

wethmangroupadmin — Tue, 24 Aug 2010 14:00:30 +0000

Zip Codes 22201 and 22203 (includes Ballston, Virginia Square, Clarendon)

Source: MRIS as of date of blog post. All data deemed accurate but not guaranteed. Stats exclude retirement communities and co-ops.

See market data for all of Arlington.

See more Buyer Resources

See last month’s post on Orange Line Condo prices.

Ready to start your search? Sign up for a free first time home buyer class in Arlington (registration required).

	1 BR Units	2BR Units
ACTIVE LISTINGS as of August 12, 2010
Average List Price	$325,231	$504,998
Number of Active Listings	35	56
Average Property DOM(P) – Actives	65	82
SOLD LISTINGS for July 2010
Average Sold Price for Previous Month (does not include seller subsidies)	$366,317	$473,495
Number of Sold Listings in Previous Month	12	19
Average Property DOM(P) – Solds	37	54

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Best DC Real Estate Blog

Katie Wethman — Mon, 23 Aug 2010 15:07:45 +0000

We’re honored to be nominated as one of DC’s Best Real Estate blogs! If you’ve enjoyed reading our posts, please take a moment to click below and register your support for http://blog.wethmangroup.com You can vote once a day all this week. Thank you!

[Poll closed]

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Property Tax Rates

wethmangroupadmin — Fri, 20 Aug 2010 18:18:27 +0000

Recently, I was approached by someone who will soon be moving to the metro Washington, DC, area. Their first question: What are the property tax rates for the various jurisdictions? Having been unable to find a single source for such information, I set off in search of the tax rates for our area. So, faithful readers, here they are…the 2010 tax rates for the greater Washington, DC, metro area.

Jurisdiction	2010 Tax Rate
Arlington County, VA	$0.865/$100 value
Alexandria City, VA	$0.978/$100 value
Fairfax County, VA	$1.09/$100 value
Fairfax City, VA	$0.955/$100 value
Falls Church City, VA	$1.24/$100 value
Loudoun County, VA	$1.245/$100 value
Prince William County, VA	$1.212/$100 value
Stafford County, VA	$1.10/$100 value
Montgomery County, MD	$0.683/$100 value
Prince George’s County, MD	$0.96/$100 value
Washington, DC	$0.85/$100 value

This information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

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This Month in Real Estate: August 2010

Katie Wethman — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 15:56:39 +0000

This month in real estate explores why waiting for a further price drop–at the risk of rising interest rates–may not be the best plan. Rates are at a 50 year low today, at approximately 4.6%. On $179,000 purchase (I bet you DC area readers would love that price for a home?!) at 4.75% and 20% down, a 10% drop in price combined with just a 1% increase in interest rates would mean a HIGHER monthly payment.

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Just how important are today’s low interest rates?

Katie Wethman — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 16:13:07 +0000

I work with a lot of first time buyers, who often ask me “How do we know the market won’t drop further? I think I should wait to buy.” My answer is always the same: I don’t have a crystal ball, but I look to the job market as a reliable leading indicator for the housing market, and also keep a close eye on interest rates.

The DC area has the lowest unemployment of any major metropolitan area in the U.S., and has for some time now. Where there are jobs (and especially high-paying white collar jobs like we have in this area), there will be people moving here to claim those jobs. And where there are people, there is a need for housing, whether it’s rental or purchase.

But can market prices drop? Of course they can. We just went through that in the past few years after the run up in local prices from 2002-2005(ish). But if you believe that we’re near the bottom, it may not be worth it to wait any longer because any gains you make via lower prices you’ll lose in purchasing power because of interest rates.

Interest rates, in case you hadn’t noticed are now at 50 year lows, hovering in the mid-4% range. Let’s take a look at a $400,000 loan, which would be typical for a first time buyer in our area. When we compare a 4.5% interest rate to even a slight increase to 5.0%, the principal and interest portion of a mortgage payment jumps from $2027/month to $2147/month–a hike of $120 a month. That’s $120/month OUT of your pocket if prices stay the same.

Another way to think about it is to figure out how big a price drop you would need to see in order to make up that 1/2% interest rate difference. It all depends on the loan amount, of course. In our example of a $400,000 loan, a buyer would need the loan amount to drop by an additional 5% to make up for the 1/2% interest rate jump (it’s not exact…actually a buyer would still pay $13/month extra, but it’s close enough for our illustrative purposes.)

So buyers, don’t get so obsessed with the tree that you miss the forest. Prices are low, interest rates are ridiculously low. Which is more likely: another severe drop in prices in our area, or a slight increase in 30 year interest rates? Plan accordingly.

If you need help starting your home search, contact us or attend a free first time home buyer seminar.

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FHA Loans Getting More Expensive – Again

Katie Wethman — Tue, 10 Aug 2010 15:55:38 +0000

Bill HR 2981 was passed by both the House and Senate, paving the way for higher charges for FHA borrowers. The majority of FHA loans are 30 year mortgages with a loan-to-value of at least 96.5%, which will see an increase in the monthly fee from 55 bps to a whopping 90bp, but on the flip side will see a reduction in the upfront mortgage insurance premium (UFMIP) from 225 basis points down to 100 basis points.

So in other words, the up front fees (this amount is often rolled into the loan balance) will go down, but the monthly charge goes up, hampering the monthly affordability for many borrowers.
The change is due to go into effect September 7, 2010.

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Northern Virginia & Washington DC Real Estate Market Update: August 2010

Katie Wethman — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 14:54:18 +0000

Though August is typically pretty slow, there’s still plenty of buzz in the real estate world, as well as the TV world, where Katie is making her TV debut on an episode of HGTV’s “My First Place.” Be sure to set your DVR to catch the Emmy-worthy performance this Thursday August 5 at 8:00 pm (and repeats in September)!

There’s also buzz about the actual real estate market, of course. The DC rental market is heating up as vacancies drop, and with the recent stabilization of our housing market, some apartments, including buildings in Adams Morgan, are once again being re-developed into condos (remember 2004, anyone?)

Our local real estate market continues to be one of the most stable in the country, still driven by low unemployment. The Wall Street Journal published this cool interactive chart that shows DC as 7th in price increase and lowest unemployment in the nation.

Inventory continues to stay low, but there’s also buzz about ‘sidelined sellers’ returning to the market soon. As the article notes, we’ve recently had about 20 homes per day list, when in past years we’ve had 50, so it would be a good thing for our area to have some more homes on the market. (Shameless plug: If you or someone you know is thinking about selling, please contact us!)

In other news…

Read the San Francisco Gate article about reasons NOT to buy (no, that’s not a typo) with some commentary by Katie Wethman of the Wethman Group.

In the “practice what you preach” department, I (Katie) recently bought a house! With rates being so fantastic (4.5%-ish, so time to think about refinancing, all you homeowners!), and prices stable, I really do think it’s a great time to buy. And if anyone is in the market for a $3500/month rental in Ballston, see http://11thStN.WethmanGroup.com Shameless plug #2: If you or someone you know is thinking of buying, we want to hear from you too!

As always, if we can be of assistance with your real estate needs, or you know someone looking to move, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

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Herndon Metro Stations – Planning Workshops Begin

Katie Wethman — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 13:00:42 +0000

According to the Washington Post, a public planning workshop is scheduled for today at 6:00 pm at the Herndon Senior Center. The workshop is part of a year-long study to update Herndon’s land-use plan, including the plans for Metro’s new Silver Line rail extension station scheduled to open in 2016.

The station, though planned for the median of the Dulles Toll Road, will have a pedestrian bridge which town officials hope will connect to a public plaza, mixed-use offices and residential buildings, and other development. Attendees of the workshop will review plans and photos of Metro stations in Hyattsville, Silver Spring, Wheaton, and Clarendon to discuss which types of development appeal to them. Another workshop is scheduled for the fall and the Herndon Town Council is expected to adopt a plan in the spring.

Significant redevelopment in an area, including the addition of a popular transit choice like Metro, will undoubtedly affect property values in the area.

Herndon isn’t the only jurisdiction making big plans along the Silver Line–Arlington County recently adopted it’s redevelopment plan for the other end of the planned Silver Line at East Falls Church Metro station.

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